What this guide covers
This guide sets out educational information to help you understand the decision around fixing your energy tariff. It is not financial advice, energy advice, or a personalised recommendation. Your situation depends on your usage, your current tariff, and your own assessment of the market.
Utility Matchmaker is an information and referral service. For live tariffs at your postcode, use the partner comparison tool.
The question households are asking right now
From 1 July 2026, the Ofgem price cap will rise by 13.5% to £1,862 per year for a typical dual fuel household. For the millions of households currently on standard variable tariffs, this means bills are about to increase. At the same time, some fixed tariffs have been available at rates below the July cap level.
The question many households are weighing is whether to fix now at a known rate, or stay on a variable tariff and wait to see whether prices fall.
This guide explains both options, the relevant information for each, and the factors that typically influence this kind of decision.
What fixed and variable tariffs mean in this context
A standard variable tariff (SVT) moves with the Ofgem price cap. When the cap rises, your rates rise. When it falls, your rates fall. You can switch away from an SVT at any time without an exit fee.
A fixed tariff locks in your unit rates and standing charges for a set period, typically 12 months. Your rates do not change during the fixed term regardless of what the price cap does. Most fixed tariffs include exit fees if you leave before the end date. Some suppliers have offered fixed tariffs with no exit fees at various points, which is worth checking when comparing.
What fixed tariffs are currently available?
In June 2026, fixed tariffs were available from several suppliers at rates below the July 2026 price cap of £1,862 per year. The cheapest available fixed deals were priced at approximately £1,602 to £1,649 per year for a typical dual fuel household.
This means a household switching to the cheapest available fixed tariff in June 2026 could pay approximately £213 to £260 less per year than a household remaining on a standard variable tariff from July 2026.
Fixed tariff availability and pricing change regularly. The figures above reflect the market position in June 2026. For current available tariffs at your postcode, use the partner comparison tool.
The case for fixing
Fixing at a rate below the July cap locks in a lower annual cost for the duration of the deal. If the cap stays at £1,862 or rises further in October 2026 and beyond, a household on a fixed deal at £1,602 would pay significantly less over the 12-month period than one remaining on the variable rate.
Cornwall Insight, whose price cap forecasts are published quarterly and widely cited in the energy sector, forecasts the October 2026 cap at approximately £1,899 per year. If this forecast proves accurate, the cap would rise twice in succession. A household that fixed in June 2026 at around £1,632 would, over a 12-month period, pay considerably less than one that remained on the cap through both the July and October increases.
The broader market context is relevant. Wholesale energy prices have been elevated since late February 2026 due to disruption in global LNG supply routes. Cornwall Insight has noted that even if the Middle East conflict that triggered the rise were to end immediately, the physical damage to infrastructure and the lingering supply disruption means a rapid return to April 2026 price cap levels looks unlikely in the near term.
For households that want predictability in their bills and are willing to commit to a 12-month contract, fixing at a rate currently below the July cap is a way to reduce both the cash cost and the uncertainty around future movements.
The case for staying variable
Forecasts are estimates, not certainties. Wholesale energy markets are volatile and have historically moved in both directions faster than analysts expected. If wholesale prices fall significantly before the October assessment window closes, the October cap could come in lower than the Cornwall Insight forecast.
If the cap were to fall below the level of an available fixed deal, a household on that fixed deal would be paying more than those on the variable rate, and would face exit fees to switch away.
Variable tariffs also offer flexibility. There are no exit fees, meaning you can switch at any time if a better deal becomes available. A household on a variable tariff is not locked in to a specific rate and can respond to market changes as they happen.
For households with lower energy usage, the absolute cash saving from fixing may also be smaller. A household using significantly less than Ofgem's typical 2,700 kWh of electricity and 11,500 kWh of gas will save less in cash terms from a given rate differential than a typical or high-usage household.
Exit fees: what to check before fixing
Most fixed tariffs include exit fees that apply if you leave before the contract end date. These are typically charged per fuel. Common exit fee levels in the current market range from £0 (some tariffs offer no exit fees) to £75 per fuel.
Before committing to a fixed deal, check the exit fee amount shown in the tariff details. If a better deal becomes available during your fixed term and you want to switch early, the exit fee reduces the net saving from switching.
Some suppliers offer a window of typically 49 days before a fixed deal ends during which exit fees are waived. This allows you to arrange a new deal and switch without paying a penalty.
Using the fixed vs variable calculator
To see the projected cost difference between fixing and staying variable based on your own usage and the current rate differential, use the fixed vs variable calculator on this site. Enter your annual kWh usage, your current variable rate, and the fixed rate you are considering. The calculator shows the projected annual saving and breaks down the impact of any exit fees.
What the comparison process looks like
If after reviewing the information above you want to compare live fixed tariffs, the process is straightforward:
The comparison tool shows live tariffs available at your postcode and updates regularly as tariff products change.
- Enter your postcode on the partner comparison tool.
- Add your annual electricity and gas usage figures from a recent bill or annual statement.
- Select your payment method (direct debit, prepayment, or standard credit).
- Compare the results, which show estimated annual costs for each available tariff alongside contract length, exit fees, and tariff type.
- If you choose a fixed deal, the application is completed on the partner platform. Switching typically completes within five working days.
A note on the October 2026 cap timing
If you fix in June or early July 2026 for a 12-month term, your deal would run until approximately June or July 2027. During that period, the cap is forecast to change twice more: in October 2026 and January 2027. Under the Cornwall Insight forecast, the October 2026 cap would rise to approximately £1,899. January 2027 forecasts are highly uncertain at this stage.
Whether the 12-month fixed deal works out cheaper than staying on the variable rate across the full year depends on the cap levels across all four quarters of that period. The fixed vs variable calculator allows you to model different cap scenarios to see how the comparison changes.